Forecast & ROI Preview
Before activating an Intelligent Delivery plan, the platform generates a forecast — an estimate of expected reach, delivery, redemption, budget, incremental sales, and ROI for each campaign action in the plan. The forecast is the approval screen: the team reviews the budget impact, changes coupon assumptions if needed, and approves only the campaigns that should be launched.
What the Forecast Shows
| Metric | Description |
|---|---|
| Customers / impacted Customers | Number of Customers expected to receive the campaign action |
| Delivered coupons | Expected number of coupons delivered to Customers |
| Delivered (%) | Expected delivery rate for the action |
| Total redemption (%) | Expected share of delivered coupons that will be redeemed |
| Budget | Expected discount or coupon cost for the action |
| Budget (%) | Share of total plan/category budget represented by the action |
| Incremental sales | Expected additional sales attributed to the action |
| Incremental ratio | Expected return indicator comparing incremental sales with cost |
| Net incremental ratio | Incremental ratio after channel/coupon cost components shown by the platform |
| Delivery cost | Expected cost for SMS/email delivery when channels are configured |
| Coupon Cost | Total expected coupon-related cost |
| Loyal Guru cost | Loyal Guru cost component when applicable |
How It Works
The forecast uses the plan configuration, Audience calculation, coupon configuration, and historical behavior signals. It analyzes:
- Historical purchase patterns — frequency, recency, average cart
- Past campaign performance — redemption rates for similar offers
- Audience propensity scores — likelihood of each Customer to respond
- Cannibalization estimate — purchases that would have happened without the campaign
- Coupon assumptions — maximum redemption, estimated delivery, estimated redemption, and redemption per Customer
- Channel assumptions — email/SMS delivery cost and reach when omnichannel delivery is configured
Using the Forecast
- Configure all campaigns within the plan: campaign type, definition, Audience, coupon, and channel settings.
- Navigate to the Forecast by Plan tab within the plan.
- Review the generated timestamp to understand when the forecast was last calculated.
- Review each campaign action and its subtotal/category totals.
- Edit estimated delivery or total redemption percentage when the UI exposes editable forecast inputs.
- Use Calculate forecast to refresh forecast values after changes.
- Use Change coupons template if the coupon assignment should be replaced before approval.
- Approve the campaign actions that fit the plan's budget and objective, or reject the ones that should not launch.
- Export the forecast or exported coupon assignments if the plan requires external approval.
Approving a campaign in Forecast is how the team accepts its forecasted budget for execution. The approved campaign becomes eligible for plan launch; rejected and draft campaigns are not sent. If plan alerts are enabled, the plan must still pass validation and any budget/configuration alerts must be acknowledged before execution.
Forecast by Plan — Metrics Reference
Once campaigns are completed (audience and coupon configured), the Forecast by Plan table shows the following fields:
| Metric | Description |
|---|---|
| Campaign category | The typology of the campaign (Recovery, Up-selling, etc.) |
| Campaign name | Name assigned to the campaign |
| Campaign ID | ID of the generated campaign action |
| Segment name | Name of the targeted audience segment |
| Customers | Customers expected to be impacted by the action |
| Coupon delivered | Number of coupons to be distributed in this plan launch |
| % Total Redemption | Estimated percentage of delivered coupons that will be redeemed |
| % Estimated Delivery | Expected percentage of coupons that will reach Customers |
| € Budget | Total estimated cost of the campaign |
| % Budget | Estimated budget as a percentage of the category budget |
| Incremental Sales | Revenue projected to result from the campaign |
| Incremental Ratio | Revenue vs. cost ratio (ROI estimate) |
| Coupon ID | Identifier of the assigned coupon |
| Coupon name | Name of the assigned coupon |
| Affectation | Whether the coupon applies to the full cart or to a product/category scope |
| Priority | Priority level of the coupon |
| Status | Approval status: Like (approved) / Dislike (rejected) / grey (draft) |
Optional columns can be enabled with Configure table. These include Audience columns such as average expenditure, average purchase, units per purchase, frequency, PVP, daily sales, seasonality, control group, minimum money, and minimum units; and forecast columns such as maximum coupon redemptions, total redemptions, estimated redemption, redemption per Customer, unique redemptions, discount, minimum purchase, percent discount, discount cost, delivery cost, Coupon Cost, Loyal Guru cost, and increase total sales.
Approving and Rejecting Campaigns
- Click Like (turns green) to approve a campaign and include it in the plan launch.
- Click Dislike (turns red) to reject a campaign; it will be excluded from the send.
- Use Approve all campaigns to approve all draft campaigns available in the forecast table.
- Only approved campaigns are executed when the plan is launched.
- Use Calculate forecast when forecast inputs or coupon assumptions changed.
- Use Export forecast to download the visible forecast table.
- Use Export coupons to export assigned coupons.
- Use Change coupons template to switch coupon assignments before launch when the legacy coupon view is available.
Budget Validation Before Launch
Forecast approval accepts the campaign action for launch, but companies can also enable plan alerts to enforce budget and configuration validation before execution. When this is active:
- Run Validate plan before sending or scheduling.
- Review generated alerts, including total budget alerts when the approved campaign budget exceeds the configured threshold.
- Acknowledge the alerts that the team accepts.
- Execute or schedule the plan only after validation succeeds and required alerts are acknowledged.
You can customize which columns appear in the table using the Configure table button. Add or remove Audience and Forecast fields to match your reporting needs.
Configuration
Forecasting is built into the campaign creation flow within a plan. No additional setup is required beyond configuring the campaign's audience and coupon.
| Setting | Description |
|---|---|
| Offer / Coupon | The discount or coupon assigned to the campaign segment |
| Estimated redemption per Customer | Average redemptions expected per Customer (editable in the Audience step without overwriting the original coupon) |
| Estimated redemption (%) | Percentage of recipients expected to redeem |
| Estimated delivery (%) | Expected percentage of Customers who will receive the coupon |
| Channel split | Optional omnichannel configuration that changes delivery assumptions and channel costs |
| Control group % | Company-level holdout percentage required for incremental measurement and ROI comparison |
Forecast accuracy improves with more historical data — new company setups may see wider confidence intervals. Redemption estimates can be adjusted per campaign in the Audience step.